By Rajika Chauhan
Correspondent
After more than a year’s stalemate, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has seen an intensification of activity in the past month.
On the eastern front, the Russians have been closing in on Pokrovsk, a key railroad hub for the Ukrainians. According to the New York Times, the Russians have passed five lines of Ukrainian fortifications since April, with only two still remaining. Should they capture the city, it would deal a damaging blow to Ukrainian operations, cutting off supplies for their military into the West.
Given their vulnerability in the East, the Ukrainians appear to have tried a new strategy by opening a new front on the North. In northeastern Ukraine last month, the military advanced into Russia and captured over 500 square miles.
With the Russian border in the north manned by mostly young and inexperienced conscripts, the Ukrainians were able to capture 100 settlements, according to Ukraine’s president, Voldymr Zelensky, as per the Times.
The war faces at this stage an inflection point. Whether there will be continued progress or a return to the stalemate of the past year depends on how effective the Ukrainians are in maintaining their defenses and how aggressive the Russians are in their continued invasions.
Matters of diplomacy in this war are now being decided largely on the basis of weaponry. Russia has so far been resistant to economic sanctions, political and diplomatic pressures that seek to bring it to the negotiating table.
According to the Times, Ukraine and its allies seem to have settled on military strength being the main source of leverage that will bring the war to an end on terms that Ukrainians can accept.
The major tactic for Ukraine’s Western allies has been providing Ukraine with the arms needed to pressure Russia into giving up its siege. At the same time, the United States and other NATO nations have had to stage a careful balancing act, seeking to support Ukraine without provoking Russia into a larger-scale attack on NATO member nations, according to the Times.
Through his tenure, President Joe Biden has been resistant to arm Ukraine with long-range missiles that will allow it to strike deep into Russian territory. Ukrainian allies like the U.S., Britain and France have limited their arms supplies to short-range missiles that target areas near the Russian border, keeping advances at bay without triggering serious retaliation.
But in recent months, Ukraine has achieved several military successes that some allies believe presents a different path to victory, according to the BBC. The country’s military occupied Russian territory in Kursk in August, in an assault that surprised both Russia and the West.
Ukraine has also been increasing strikes against oil supplies, and neutralized the Russian Black Sea naval fleet. This succession of military wins has allowed Ukraine’s allies to consider a path to peace where Russia is forced into negotiations in an effort to avoid further losses, giving Ukraine more of a say on peace terms.
“Putin doesn’t believe in any diplomacy; he’s just playing this game,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics. “But I think he also wants to see evidence. You know, bring the receipts. So, does Ukraine have the capabilities?”
Britain and France have prepared to sign-off on long-range missiles, although Biden is still waiting to make his decision. The Times reports that the added strength of these missiles would allow Ukraine to potentially begin to strike ports, oil facilities and even threaten Moscow, a level of pressure which gives the country the best chance of forcing Russia into a retreat.
Biden’s decision will certainly shape the future of this war, as will the outcome of the upcoming Presidential election. Candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris hold two starkly different positions on approaches to end the war.
Trump’s vice-presidential pick, Senator JD Vance, outlined his plan to bring the war to an end in an interview last week, suggesting a path where Ukraine cedes occupied territory and promises not to join NATO. Harris has promised to continue Biden’s pro-Ukrainian policies, and would likely follow suit on whatever course Biden sets in the next few months.
